Natalie Portman delivers a standout performance in “May December,” but the film has not gained traction with the guilds, putting her in contention as a bubble candidate. Similarly, Fantasia Barrino-Taylor’s powerful moments in “The Color Purple” did not secure her a SAG nomination. Greta Lee’s understated performance in “Past Lives” may not be enough to surpass flashy competition.
This leaves us with Annette Bening, SAG-nominated for her tough role in “Nyad,” and Margot Robbie, the linchpin of “Barbie.” Robbie has the edge with her strong film contender, but effervescent comedy can sometimes be taken for granted by voters, despite Robbie’s seamless portrayal of a tricky role.
Best Supporting Actor
The “Barbenheimer” duo, Robert Downey Jr. and Ryan Gosling, are likely to go head-to-head for the gold in this category. Robert De Niro, standout in “Killers of the Flower Moon,” also holds a strong position after receiving nods from SAG, Critics Choice, and the Golden Globes, alongside a mention on the BAFTA longlist.
After these three contenders, the picture becomes less clear.
Young actors Charles Melton and Dominic Sessa may fill the last two spots, but the academy tends to resist nominating young men. Sterling K. Brown, nominated by SAG for “American Fiction,” could also secure a spot with a strong performance from the film. Voters may turn to veteran actors Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo from “Poor Things” for the remaining nominations, following a trend of dual supporting nods from one film.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Da’Vine Joy Randolph from “The Holdovers” follow in the footsteps of Ke Huy Quan and Troy Kotsur? Randolph has been dominating the season with critics’ awards and televised trophies, positioning her as a strong contender for an Oscar win.
