A 16% nosedive in the trading volume underscores the increasing selling pressure across the board, especially with the total market cap falling by 9% to $1.6 trillion. Bitcoin dominance holds at 51.6% despite its market value sliding by 7% to $830 billion.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Uptrend Falters As Doubts Mount Over ETF Approval
Bitcoin price has from mid-October monumentally sustained an uptrend, breaking above $45,000 early this week backed by intensifying optimism for the approval of the spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) .
Industry experts like Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicted in December that the SEC could decide on approval of multiple proposals before January 10.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said there is a 10% chance that the spot Bitcoin ETF will temporarily fail to pass this month, and the U.S. SEC will say it wants more time rather than reject it outright. If rejected directly, fund issuers may launch lawsuits against the SEC…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) January 3, 2024
However, a few days ahead of this approval window, a report by Matrixport projects that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would reject all Bitcoin spot ETFs, thus spreading fear in the market and leading to the ongoing correction.
The Matrixport report cautioned investors “to hedge long exposure” suggesting that Bitcoin could drop by an additional 20% following the ETF denial.
Matrix on Target projects a January rejection for Bitcoin Spot ETFs by the SEC, cautioning traders to hedge long exposure. With #SEC Chair Gensler’s skepticism towards #crypto , a potential -20% #Bitcoin price drop is anticipated upon #ETF denial, though a positive end-of-2024… pic.twitter.com/IgaMhBJtiP
— Matrixport (@realMatrixport) January 3, 2024
In support of this unpopular prediction, the researchers said that despite the back-and-forth meetings between the SEC and applicants, which have seen proposals refiled they “believe all applications fall short of a critical requirement that must be met before the SEC approves.”
The report reckoned that there is a high chance the critical requirement would “be fulfilled by Q2 2024” hence the expectation that the SEC will “reject all proposals in January.
The SEC Chair Gary Gensler commented in December that the approval of an ETF would catalyze crypto to takeoff and urged that the industry requires “a more stringent compliance.”
“If there is any denial by the SEC, we could see cascading liquidations as we expect most of the $5.1 billion in additional perpetual long Bitcoin futures to be unwound,” the Matrixport report outlined. “We could see Bitcoin prices declining by -20% very quickly and falling back to the $36,000/$38,000 range.”
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What’s Next After Bitcoin Price Plunges To $40,000?
Bitcoin price has been accepted back into the ascending triangle. Before this correction, BTC broke out of the pattern and rallied above $45,000 but retraced before touching resistance at $46,000.
The largest cryptocurrency might continue to cede ground if investors panic sell to protect their capital and profits to buy a lower price point.
A sell signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator might accentuate the bearish theory.
As long as the MACD line in blue holds below the signal line in red while the momentum indicator falls toward the neutral area, the headwinds Bitcoin is facing would increase, and further dampen the chances of an immediate recovery.
Bitcoin price daily price chart | Tradingview
The 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) (in red) at $43,408 and the 20 EMA (in blue) at $41,977—now resistance levels might limit price movement targeting $50,000 while the 200 EMA (in purple) holds as a tentative support at $41,977.
Losing support at the rising trendline could lead to more losses, with Bitcoin price likely to retest $38,000 and $36,000 levels, respectively. If the SEC actually approvals the ETF , the probability of a rally to $50,000 before the end of January would be significantly high.
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